Texas Flash Flood Disaster: Why Officials Are Pointing Fingers at Trump-Era Cuts to the National Weather Service

 

As the death toll from the devastating flash floods in Texas rises to at least 82, scrutiny has turned toward a less visible culprit: a hollowed-out National Weather Service. In emotional briefings and press conferences, Texas officials are increasingly voicing frustration—not just over the speed and ferocity of the flooding, but over what they describe as a dangerous weakening of the country’s weather forecasting system during the Trump administration.

What began as a routine Fourth of July holiday quickly turned into a nightmare for thousands, especially in the Texas Hill Country, where heavy rains triggered a historic surge of the Guadalupe River. With waters rising over 26 feet in less than an hour, entire communities—including youth camps, rural neighborhoods, and riverfront towns—were caught unprepared and underwater.

A Catastrophic Flood, With Little Warning

In the early hours of July 5, floodwaters surged through the region, sweeping away buildings, vehicles, and people. Particularly hard-hit was a girls’ summer camp near Hunt, Texas, where dozens of children and counselors were trapped. Rescuers later confirmed that at least 28 of the flood victims were children.

What’s raising public outrage isn’t just the scale of the tragedy—it’s how little warning communities received.

“There was no indication, based on the NWS forecast, that this kind of catastrophic event was on the horizon,” said Rob Kelly, the Kerr County Judge. “We had a flash flood watch, sure. But what we needed was an evacuation order. And that never came because the forecast underestimated the threat by a factor of ten.”

According to local emergency services, the National Weather Service had issued a flash flood watch earlier in the day but did not forecast the extraordinary rainfall totals that ultimately hit. Official models had predicted 3 to 8 inches of rain. In some areas, more than 25 inches fell in just two hours.

Staff Shortages and Delayed Alerts

One of the key reasons for the misjudged forecast, say state leaders, lies in what they describe as the “hollowing out” of the National Weather Service.

Over the past several years, particularly during and after Donald Trump’s presidency, the NWS experienced significant attrition. Between 2020 and 2024, budgetary restraints and hiring freezes led to the loss of nearly 600 positions nationwide, including meteorologists, hydrologists, and data analysts.

In Texas, the situation was especially dire. At the time of the flood, the NWS office responsible for the Hill Country region was reportedly short three forecasters and lacked a dedicated hydrologist—key roles for assessing and predicting flash flood threats.

“These were not minor cuts,” said W. Nim Kidd, Chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management. “They directly impacted the timeliness and accuracy of warnings. That’s not political spin. That’s operational reality.”

Kidd emphasized that local agencies rely on NWS models and alerts to make real-time decisions. “If that system is underpowered, we’re flying blind.”

Trump-Era Budget Reforms Under Scrutiny

Much of the anger is being directed at budget reforms that began under former President Donald Trump, particularly those enforced by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Introduced in 2023, DOGE implemented broad cuts to “duplicative or non-essential government services.” The NWS, which was criticized by some in the administration for “overlapping” with private weather providers like AccuWeather, was heavily impacted.

Critics of those reforms—including current and former NOAA officials—argue that forecasting extreme weather cannot be left to the private sector alone. Unlike private apps or companies, the NWS provides real-time coordination with emergency management agencies and handles life-and-death alerts.

“You can’t run a storm forecast system on skeleton crews and still expect accuracy,” said Dr. Elena Matthews, a former NOAA director. “This flood was the nightmare scenario we warned about.”

Local Infrastructure Gaps Exacerbated the Crisis

In addition to federal forecasting failures, some local officials have acknowledged shortcomings of their own. Kerr County had previously declined to fund a countywide flood siren system—a decision now being re-evaluated.

“There’s no question that better alert infrastructure might have saved lives,” said Sheriff Larry Burrows. “But that infrastructure depends on early, accurate warnings. If the data is late or wrong, the system fails before it even starts.”

Residents of the affected area described being awakened not by sirens or warnings, but by the sound of raging water.

“I heard the water smashing through trees and knew we had seconds,” said one survivor from the flood zone. “I grabbed my daughter and ran. The alerts didn’t come until after we were already outside.”

Federal Response and Political Fallout

President Trump, who is currently running for re-election in 2028, issued a brief statement offering condolences but dismissed accusations that his administration’s policies contributed to the disaster.

“Tragedies happen,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Georgia. “This isn’t about politics. This is about unpredictable weather. Don’t let the fake media blame Trump for rain.”

His comments drew immediate backlash from both Texas Republicans and Democrats.

Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican and longtime Trump ally, appeared visibly shaken during a press conference in Austin. “I’m not interested in finger-pointing today,” he said. “But we are going to take a hard look at how federal forecasting resources are being deployed—and whether Texas is being left vulnerable.”

What Comes Next

In Washington, lawmakers are already drafting emergency legislation to replenish NWS staffing levels and improve regional forecast modeling. A bipartisan bill is expected to be introduced this week.

Meanwhile, search and recovery operations continue across flood-ravaged areas. Hundreds of volunteers and first responders are still combing riverbanks and wooded areas, hoping to locate survivors—or recover the bodies of those who didn’t make it.

For many in Texas, the flood marks not only a natural disaster but a human one—one they say could have been mitigated by better forecasting, more resources, and decisions rooted in science, not politics.

As one grieving parent at a memorial service put it, “We can’t stop the rain. But we could’ve saved our kids—if someone had just warned us.”